SHOULD INDIA OPT FOR BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE?




Sino-India relationship is considered as one of the most important relationships of the 21st century in Asia. It has the potential to bring mutual prosperity and progress to one-third of humanity on the planet. Over the last seven decades, India and China have clashed over many issues, yet both the nations have succeeded in maintaining peace and tranquillity on the line of actual control (LAC), which is a de facto international borders. Mukesh Devrari, Assistant Professor, School of Media and Communication interviewed Professor Ravindra Sharma, Department of Chinese Languages, who has authored two books on China. He is currently working on his fourth book mapping Sino India relations in Xi-Modi Era.

What are the implications of BRI? Was it a a correct decision on the part of India to oppose ‘BRI' and in particular CPEC. How do you see these emerging dynamics?
It was a very unwise decision on the part of India to outrightly reject the participation of Belt and Road Initiative. It helped Pakistan's developmental agenda by cementing China Pakistan nexus further against India. More importantly, currently, India is the junior partner of the USA and Japan in Asia. Even, the diehard opponents of China USA and Japan sent their representatives to the opening ceremony of BRI. India could use this opportunity to improve its economy and ease the bitterness of China against India. Now the Chinese economy is the second largest one and by the end of 2030 China will surpass the US economy. The sources of might and strength of a modern country are two: First economy, second military. Post-Soviet Union world is changing rapidly. With the collapse of Soviet Union India moved towards the The USA and subsequently in 2008 Indo-US nuclear agreement was signed. Chinese are aware of it that Indo-Nuclear agreement was primarily to contain China in Asia. Shall I remind the readers of Campus Bytes that during the cold war the USA supported Pakistan on each and every issue including Kashmir? At present, it is supporting India. Frankly, the USA is not a reliable friend. As far as the project of CPEC is a concern, the Chinese understanding of terrorism is more accurate and scientific. Chinese argue that poverty and backwardness breed terrorism. Pakistan is more a victim of poverty and backwardness than India. China has sponsored 46 billion dollar project to create a middle-class society in Pakistan. What is wrong with it. The emergence of the middle class in Pakistan will reduce the influence of radical Islamists, enriching democratic institutions on the hand and improve the relations between India and Pakistan on the other hand.

Can India and China simply be friends? What are the hurdles in their complicated relationship?
India and China relationship are very complicated. Thanks to Rajiv Gandhi's visit to China (December 1988) and A.B Vajpayee's visit to China (June 2003) which propelled the wheel of dialogues between the two. I am dealing with this issue in my latest book India and China Disputes and Dialogues. Frankly, the two ex-colonial countries should have been friends, rather than foes. In a classical definition and nuances of friend and foe, India and China are neither friends nor foes. Currently, the trade volume between India and China is 80 billion. The number of tourist or both countries are increasing day by day. Shall I tell you that every Chinese tourist visit Taj Mahal in India and every Indian tourist visits the great wall of China, in China? The department of Chinese studies are mushrooming in India and the centre for Indian studies are in China. Mr Modi took the oath as PM in May 2014 and in September 2014. Xi Xinping visited India and with the completion of one year, Mr Modi visited China in May 2015 shows how important these two countries for each other. Unfortunately despite the economic and cultural improvement on political issues such as Tibet, border and China Pakistan unity the distrust between the two continues. Frankly, India is scared of China's rise in Asia and China is scared of India's rise in South Asia. South Asia is a rival zone for India and China and globally both India and China follow different footsteps. While China has threatened the might of USA, India completely follows the USA. While India has made bonhomie with Vietnam, China has developed a tacit understanding with Pakistan on the one hand and North Korea on the other. In the last 10 years or so, Russians under the leadership of Putin developed trade and cultural relations with China. Trump administration is cautiously watching the bonhomie between China and Russia (the two former communists countries).

President Xi Xinping has decided to end the two-term limit on the Presidential. Rubber stamp Chinese legislature likely to accept the changes. Xi Xinping will be the president for life. How this new development likely to impact global order and in particular Indo-China relations?
Let me deal with this question in a larger perspective. The Communist revolution in the Soviet Union and subsequently in China broad the communist party in power. Stalin and the Soviet Union and Mao in China on the name of the dictatorship of proletariat behave as an unscrupulous dictator. Crushing the internal democracy within the party and society. As a result, discontent arose in every segment of the nation. In 1978, a reformer name Deng Xiaoping came to power and in 1982 he changed the Chinese constitution limiting the tenure of President for two terms. The successor of Deng enjoyed the power only for two terms (10 years). It was much clear before the 19th communist party (October 2017) that Xi Xinping is unlikely to step down. The NPC (National People’s Congress) follows the decision of the standing committee of CPC (Communist Party of China): President of China is also the general secretary of CPC and also the chairman of the military commission of China. President of Communist country is still a very powerful personality. No one dares to question his wisdom. This is the reason that Xi Xinping has decided to extend his tenure. On the other, Xi is a very popular leader after Mao and Deng because in his tenure Chinese societies have witnessed the rapid rise of China threatening the USA and Japan. However, the decision of Xi and the apex governing bodies of China will go ultimately against the ruling party. Xi may become powerful in China, but it will weaken the bones of society (means intellectuals, workers, peasants and liberals.) The injuries of democracy movement 1989 are still fresh in the minds of Chinese students and intellectuals. In Xi's future tenure, the future of Sino-Indian relations is neither bleak nor bright. Culture and trade will continue to thrive, carrying the bitterness, pain, anger, the anguish of Doklam standoff.

Arunachal Pradesh is unalienable part of India. China has refused to accept it. It describes Arunachal Pradesh as part of TAR (Tibetan Autonomous Region), which is Chinese territory. Is it possible for both the nations to accept LAC (Line of Actual Control) or McMahon line as an international border?
Chinese are tough negotiators. Arunachal Pradesh is a bargaining chip for them. Chinese still refuse to accept the MacMohan line, drawn at Shimla Convention in 1940. Factually, Shima convention is not signed by Chinese but was signed by Tibet and British Raj, China's insistence on Arunachal Pradesh as part of Chinese territory is because the borderline has not been demarcated yet. Several rounds of discussions have failed to solve the riddles of border tango. Zhou Enlai, the principal architect of China's foreign policy visited India thrice in the Nehru era (1954, 1958 and 1960). Finally, Zhou Enlai in 1960 proposed East-West swap. Suggesting that you keep whatever you have and we will keep whatever we have means, China will accept India's claim over Arunachal Pradesh and India will hand over Aksai Chin to China. Nehru bluntly rejected Zhou's proposal. Alas, the successive governments of the post-Nehru era could not convince the Chinese that Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin is an inalienable part of Indian territory. In Xi and Modi era, despite the improvement of Culture and trade, the deadlock over border continues.

 end. 

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