The Taliban rule in Afghanistan and its implications for India

https://twitter.com/calxandr/status/1432612313547354112

Mukesh Devrari

It is not good news for India that the Taliban has captured power in Afghanistan, and it might become a vassal state of Pakistan. Lot has been written about how India has been screwed in Afghanistan. How Pakistan once again defeated India in Afghanistan by ensuring that the Taliban captures the power and will eventually provide Islamic militants to attack Indian security forces in Kashmir and beyond. There is nothing wrong with this assessment. The Islamic terrorists will now have sanctuary in lawless Afghanistan controlled by the Taliban by showing utmost barbarity to anyone opposing its rule.

It is also important to remember the United States did not invade Afghanistan to secure and protect India’s interest. It invaded Afghanistan to target militants attacking Americans. The strategic benefits accrued to India were byproducts of US policy to contain Islamic terrorism flowing from Afghanistan. The biggest loser in the Afghan imbroglio is the United States. They spent two decades, spent billions of dollars, hundreds of soldiers, only to see that Taliban captured the power even before US security forces could leave. The US also spent billions of dollars supporting Pakistan in return for help to fight Taliban forces but was not served by its client state.

Instead, Pakistan trained Taliban fighters, weaponized Islam to motivate Pashtuns to mobilize against the US-backed Afghan government, provided weapons to eighty thousand Taliban fighters, perhaps planted their military officers inside Taliban to coordinate their offensive apart from regular Pashtun troops, guided the Taliban representatives on how to seek concessions from the US in Doha talks, while also maintaining that Pakistanis are US allies. It is a remarkable success of Pakistani military strategists.

Former Direct General of Pakistani intelligence agency ISI Hamid Gul’s words was prophetic. He said after the departure of US forces from Afghanistan, the world would realize that Pakistan defeated the United States with the help of the United States. Though, Americans might not share this view. They are not totally wrong as well. They did not invade Afghanistan to build a democratic state where most of the population accepts western modernity and civilization. Its aim was not the modernization and counter-insurgency but neutralizing the terrorist safe havens used for targeting the mainland.

Partially, the United States might have succeeded. Still, in the long run, the same elements associated with terrorist groups known for targeting western countries might find a safe haven in Afghanistan again. Indians are particularly about Afghanistan becoming a haven for Islamic terrorist groups focused on India. Western countries generally prefer to ignore the Islamic groups targeting India and push it under the basket of the India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir. Departure of American security forces from Afghanistan will have far more dangerous consequences for India.

First, the Pakistani military would not like to be seen overtly supporting the Islamic terrorists planning to attack US interests, as it might have serious repercussions for the Pakistani economy and military capacity, but in the case of India, there are no such inhibitions. Pakistani state openly boasts Islamic militants as freedom fighters and justifies their violence as a result of India’s presence in Kashmir. No matter how much India rejects the Pakistani argument, it is a harsh reality that the international community is likely to ignore terror attacks on India.

India must remember Pakistani terrorists hijacked the Indian passenger plane IC-814 in 1999, attacked the Indian parliament, attacked Mumbai and conducted numerous terror attacks on India in the last two decades. India was forced to release Masood Azhar and three other terrorists in return for the passengers of the hijacked plane in 1999. BBC journalists in Pakistan attended the press conference held by released terrorists. Even today, they roam around freely running organizations collecting funds to launch jihad against India.

Secondly, India lacks the military capacity to respond properly to Pakistani provocations, as were evident in the Balakot strikes and their aftermath. Jingoistic claims are alright, but in reality, the Indian political establishment lacks the will. The military and air force lack weapons and capacity to punish Pakistan for launching a proxy war against India. Pakistan believes that it can continuously use Islamic militants to attack India without any dangers of military retaliation due to its nuclear weapons. Proxies war under the Pakistani nuclear umbrella and bleeding enemy by thousand cuts will continue to be a Pakistani strategy to weaken India and ensure that it could never find its true place among the comity of nations.

A lot depends on how the Modi government reacts after the next terrorist attack by Pakistani terror groups on India.

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