J&K FULLY INTEGRATED WITH INDIAN UNION, WHAT NEXT?

Mukesh Devrari

The state of J&K is being discussed around the globe. It will remain in the news cycle for the next few days. Abrupt scrapping of article 370 and 35A came as a shock to the nation. J&K is a privileged state of the Indian Union. It has its own constitution. Central laws are not automatically applied to it. Legislative assembly of the state can also decide the rights of state subjects. People from other parts of India are not allowed to buy immovable property, apply for government jobs and avail educational scholarships in the state of J&K. All these rules will now become history as BJP government is repealing article 370 and 35A. 

J&K consists of Jammu, Ladakh and Kashmir valley. BJP has decided to convert J&K into a Union Territory with its own legislative assembly. Ladakh region will also be a Union Territory but without a legislature. Kashmir valley is a Muslim majority region and source of all the troubles for India. Jammu and Ladakh region are Hindu and Buddhist dominated areas respectively, but Kashmiri Muslims dominate the bureaucracy and politics of the entire state. Central laws are also not applicable in J&K, it does not follow a reservation for scheduled tribes and scheduled castes.  

As BJP has scrapped article 370 and 35 A. J&K has been fully integrated into the Indian Union without any riders. In facts its position has been weakened as it will be a Union Territory, meaning Union Government will have more powers to control affairs of the region than it has in the case of other states. In few hours J&K came to a deprived position from its privileged position in comparison to other Indian states.

There is no doubt, people all over the country will support the BJP government’s nationalistic posturing over the issue. In fact, this decision to repeal the special status of J&K reinforced the credentials of Modi as a strongman who can take the frivolous decisions without caring about any backlash. Radical BJP supporters are celebrating all over the country. Anyone who will oppose the government’s move will be immediately branded a traitor. It will not be possible for the mainstream opposition party to fight with BJP on streets as masses also see privileges to the people of J&K as an assault on their rights. Most of the Indians want a right to settle down and find a government job in the J&K.

Although in this deeply divisive debate no one is ready to notice that in the last few years, almost all central laws were accepted by the legislative assembly and implement in J&K. There are hardly any vacant government jobs. This decision is highly unlikely to increase the prospect of jobs for unemployed youth. As far as the right to acquire immovable property and vote during the elections are concerned that could have been achieved by taking the people of J&K into confidence in the longer run. There was hardly any urgency to do it right away. 

Unfortunately, the collision of the stubbornness of Kashmiri separatists with aggressive Hindu nationalists led to this explosive situation. Pakistan is likely to fish in the troubled waters. It cannot do much, but it can easily supply arms and ammunitions to Kashmiri separatists. There can be attacks beyond Kashmir region. Kashmir valley will likely to face another cycle of violence. Youngsters are likely to protest vehemently. The state is likely to respond with fierce force. It will become a chain of violence. There are heavy security arrangements.

What happens next entirely depends on what happens in the Kashmir valley. People of Ladakh and Jammu are likely to stand firmly with India, but Muslims in the valley will be extremely angry as repealing 370 and 35 A mostly affects their interests and dominance. It takes away their privileged position. After these new rules, delimitation is likely to follow, which means the reorganization of seats in the legislative assembly as per the proportion of the population. It will be easier to become a state subject. That means more settlers will get the right to vote. The settlers will be mostly from other states. It will further dilute the influence of Kashmiri Muslims from the valley.
   

Now, the entire nation is watching how Kashmiris react. Their reactions will decide what happens next in the valley. It will also be interesting to watch how Pakistan reacts apart from the usual cries of appeals of intervention by the international community and empty statements. BJP is also confident that it can control the Kashmir valley by using brute force, if necessary. People of Jammu and Ladakh mostly stand with the union government, but the situation in Kashmir valley can be highly volatile.

In any case, J&K will no longer be the same place. No union government will be able to undo what the Modi government has done. J&K from now on will remain a Union Territory firmly under the control of the union government.

End.